Vote counting has begun in Malawi’s closely watched presidential election, a contest shaped by economic hardship and pitting incumbent President Lazarus Chakwera against former President Peter Mutharika, with analysts predicting a likely runoff due to a crowded field and new electoral rules.

Malawi’s 7.2 million registered voters, representing 65% of eligible citizens, faced a stark choice between Chakwera, 70, of the Malawi Congress Party, and Mutharika, 85, of the Democratic Progressive Party. The election, which also determines parliamentary and local government seats, unfolds against a backdrop of 27% inflation, severe fuel shortages, and widespread poverty, worsened by Cyclone Freddy in 2023 and a 2024 drought. Results are expected within seven days, but a 50%+1 majority rule makes a second round in mid-November probable.

Chakwera, elected in a historic 2020 rerun after Mutharika’s fraud-tainted 2019 win was annulled, campaigned on infrastructure achievements like roads and railways, attributing economic woes to global pressures and natural disasters. Mutharika emphasized past agricultural successes and promised stability, despite his 2019 victory being overturned for irregularities, including altered vote tallies.

Other candidates, including former President Joyce Banda and Vice President Michael Usi, trailed in polls, which framed the race as a Chakwera-Mutharika duel.

Malawi, a former British protectorate independent since 1964, has maintained a multiparty democracy since 1994. The election tests its resilience amid economic strain, with 80% of its 21 million people reliant on agriculture in rural areas.